To stay in lockdown for extra 2 weeks meaning no pubs, restaurants etc can reopen in that duration after huge spikes in the city.
Scotland infecting England latest
The cluster just across the border was apparently some managers at a seafood factory in Annan getting together for a shindig and they all got it. One of their wives works at the Cumberland Infirmary at Carlisle and has probably spread it about*
*according to some bloke on the carlisle messageboard
CLOSE THE BORDER
Edited by cufc_infinity at 14:19:30 on 3rd July 2020
Re: Scotland infecting England latest
My Carlisle-ish mate told me that a nurse and a bbq were involved.
Small town rumour mills > Expensive test and trace systems
Re: Scotland infecting England latest
Jocks need to stop going all Braveheart on us!
Pubs outside Leicester no go zone
Pubs that are just outside no go zone will ask customers which postcode they live in and if they find out it’s in no go zone then they will be not allowed in.
They can face fines up to £100 if they found in breach of rules.
I feel sorry for people of Leicester who were eager to see the pubs, restaurants and barbers reopen tomorrow, only to find out they have to wait for another 2 weeks..
Re: Pubs outside Leicester no go zone
Some pubs just outside the exclusion zone have chosen not to re-open whilst the localised lockdown is on.
This is quite interesting on why it doesn't seem like Leicester is such a big deal if you look at official numbers....
NEW with @AndyBounds, @sarahnev & @Laura_K_Hughes:— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) June 30, 2020
The UK government’s published numbers of new cases at local authority level only include pillar 1 and *not* pillar 2 cases, meaning as many as 90% of new cases are missing from the datahttps://t.co/xGydQLHWjX
Because I'm too lazy to look it up, what's the difference between pillar 1 and pillar 2 cases?
'Public Health England publishes a weekly breakdown of the two categories: tests from hospitals, known as pillar 1, and from commercial labs that process at-home and drive-through tests, known as pillar 2.'
Cheers. So they've only counted hospital tests.
It's just utterly bizarre, why do that? Surely they want people to adhere to the rules, so why produce figures which makes it look like they're overreacting? It's lieing for lieing sake. Just pointless and self defeating. Where's the gain for them?
Is it just at the lower grain (local authority etc) where they are just using hospital data or any time they give positive test numbers. If the later that's a scandal, people are making their own call on risk based on the number of active cases. We need the ONS, NAO, Statistics Authority to all come out together and say this is all bollocks
The fundamental problem here is that the numbers of positive cases from Pillar 1 testing (hospitals) and Pillar 2 testing ('at home' and community testing) is combined, but only reported, at UK level.
It was the combined 'total to date' and 'daily' case numbers that were presented at the now defunct daily briefings.
However, the number reported at the level of each of the 4 nations and below that - local authority - does not include the Pillar 2 numbers. The discrepancy can be seen here (see difference between 'Total number of lab-confirmed UK cases' and the totals for the 4 nations in the table below):
The Pillar 2 data is produced from that provided by commercial laboratories which include those operated by Serco and Sitel. As a consequence of the centralised nature of the way testing is being managed, local Pillar 2 data is shared quickly with the relevant local health bodies but not with the local authorities, MPs and the public.
Consequently, there is a delay in them knowing the true figures for positive cases in their areas, which prevents them from responding in a timely manner. And, of late, 90% of the positive cases in Leicester have been identified in Pillar 2 testing
This is the key Tweet in that JB-M thread:
Full pillar 1+2 data is being shared w/ local public health bodies, so some health officials know what’s going on in different bits of the country, but this data is not shared with local councils, mayors, MPs, who’ve had to ask for it & wait weeks. Useless in fast-moving pandemic— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) June 30, 2020
So - schools are places of transmission
No doubt some pissed up wanker will torch a mosque on Saturday
The outbreak is in Evington, where i lived when at uni. It is very much in the heart of the Asian community, on the news the councillor said it was partly due to locals not understanding the language so arent following advice, which would make sense as all the flyers i used to get when I lived there were in often all accompanied by Urdu translations.
I heard on the radio the language barrier excuse being played a good 3 months ago. People understand English when they want to.
Roll eyes emoji.
Of course, but they can't say that can they due to The EU red tape, its political correctness gone mad!!!111!!
Bloke on LBC last night (I know, I know), is from Stoke and said they'd never really closed any shops etc.
The intergenerational living as well. My next-door neighbour (who was my landlord) had a 7 bed house with 10 people living it in, spanning across about 4 generations. As you say, i doubt many of the hard-nosed fruit shop owners etc would have paid much notice to some of the shop/mosque lockdowns etc as well. Sounds like a potent cocktail.
Whatever culture/area has bigger families in lower echelons is going to suffer more.
If my family play a bit loose with the rules it’s just the five of us in three households, two of which are pretty much isolated and the third WFH.
If you have a big south Asian family with all the kids ‘just quickly popping in’, them having quite a few kids, and a fair proportion of them all working in key worker/retail jobs then the risk is far higher.
Good. Great to see that the track and trace and testing schemes identify this quickly so it can be targeted correctly.
Somehow descartes will tell us this is shit
That post really did not age well...
Did it not?
In summary, they've been finding the cases, acting on it, but not telling people that it doesn't matter to. I really don't see the problem here.
Why is the whole world not happy unless they see themselves in the picture and they haven't told them, personally, what's going on in something that doesn't affect them one bit?
Edited by ProgressiveTara at 15:39:05 on 1st July 2020
The local authorities were not aware of the Pillar 2 cases - representing 90% of the recent cases in Leicester - until 10 days after they were reported from the commercial laboratories to PHE England.
Until then, they thought there were just 90 cases.
See also - particularly the 'Analysis' bit:
So the local authorities get to decide whether they are locked down or not?
I'm still reading this as the main people with the power decide what's happening and act on it, and have all the figures. They haven't told twitter though, that I agree with.
Edited by ProgressiveTara at 10:16:30 on 2nd July 2020
'Somehow descartes will tell us this is shit'
I will leave last night's Panorama to do that job for me. Did you see it?
It was pretty damning. 25,000 contract tracers have, to date, followed up on 15,812 contacts. That's a little more than 0.6 people each. A number of tracers have sat at their desks for a month, refreshing their screens and finding nothing.
The vast majority of all contacts were initiated by NHS specialists following processes which were already in place (i.e. Pre 28th May).
Edited by DesCartes at 08:33:19 on 30th June 2020
Wow. Sounds like the processes we had in place pre 28th May were pretty good then. Still, nice to have this backstop.
Oh dear. Wrong conclusion.
Read this article. And don't 'tl;dr' it; it's not 20 pages long, like most that you link to.
'At the start of the coronavirus outbreak, a report written by Public Health England for the government's SAGE group of advisers called for a ten-fold increase in contact tracing capacity.'
What's in place is inadequate.
Was wondering if you'd had chance to conclude your thoughts on the veracity of the tweets from @archer_rs from last night?
You seemed to tail off the topic suddenly.
Allow me to link to it just in case you missed it
Have a great day!
Specifically which part of this were you struggling with?
I.e. I'd already answered Baldie's last question.
No you hadn't.
You diverted the subject as you always do.
A simple yes or no would have sufficed but instead you did your policitician act and talked around a subject knowing that you'd been found out but too pussy to admit it
Ok. I personally believe it. Satisfied now?
Edited by DesCartes at 09:53:07 on 30th June 2020
You're wrong obviously (imvho) but nice to see you actually nail your colours to the mast for once.
Don’t forget that Des thinks people only voted for Brexit because of the ‘lies’ he keeps quoting, and that all Brexiteers believed them all literally and had no understanding that there would be compromises.
He also can’t see the difference between choosing your compromises and having them imposed.
"He also can’t see the difference between choosing your compromises and having them imposed"
UK had no power/influence/agency as a member state?
That is different from choice
We negotiated and made compromises. We chose our compromises.
We were very powerful at the centre of Europe.
We lost 13% of votes in 2009 to 2015 and 3% in 2004 to 2009. Thus we were on the side of the winning vote 87% and 97% of the time. Nice counter argument.
It is noticeable that we started losing votes when your Tories came to power.
I saw a twitter thread ages back that listed the votes we lost, quite a few were to do with closing off tax loopholes for individuals and big corporations, which would tally with why we started "losing" more when the Tories came into power.
The most vote losingest country.
They weren't my Tories. My Tories came in last year.
Who did you vote for before?
I reckon you were a UKipper.
Well if I got the worst result in a test at 87%, I'd live with that.
Why am I obviously wrong? There are a lot of very gullible Brexiteers out there and this slow, protracted 'dropping of the penny' is something many will experience.
And the saga continues to develop today...
There are a lot of very gullible Brexiteers out there
Ha ha this is priceless.
Do you also believe that his daughter was told to F off back to France on Saturday?
It makes my blood boil that people who don't live here voted us out and are now applying for residency, as they realise the lies they believed are not true. They voted us out but then decided to keep their nice EU rights and benefits.
I had a quick scan of that article, but couldn't find an answer to my question there.
Yes, I believe it. There have been plenty of instances of this:
Well done on dredging out an article from 4 years ago to help try to support the fact that you've been hoodwinked by a spoof Twitter account and that nobody should really be laughing at you
That poor bloke. Two Brexit related incidents in a week. And the second one seemingly a comedic series that keeps on giving.
You couldn’t make it up.
In other news it seems that they are messing with the English language again and censoring our great books of reference.
DID YALL KNOW THE WORD GULLIBLE ISNT IN THE DICTIONARY??— zahra⁷ ♡’s rima (@BTSutilltheend) June 27, 2020
Says the man who believes a Michael Gove speech to be`cathartic' and clings to a belief that Brexit will, in some way, benefit this country.
Edited by DesCartes at 13:08:03 on 30th June 2020
I'm sorry we had to stage an intervention, but you really can't keep believing everything you read on Twitter. You'll get yourself into all sorts of bother.
69K Likes for his original Tweet and rising.
Even for those who don't believe the story, it's an entertaining read.
I have this morning been inundated with DM's asking me to "prove" this thread. This is my answer to all of you.— RS Archer (@archer_rs) June 30, 2020
If you don't want to believe it, block me, mute me or simply stop reading my tweets. All I have written is true and is still happening. I doubt Thursday will end it
Obviously the best way to persuade us he isn’t lying is a tweet of the liar saying he isn’t lying. Gold standard proof.
You will still perpetuate a lie even when it has been shown to be a lie. That is worse.
Any vacancies in this government's Cabinet currently?
If you're right, this makes him an ideal fit / candidate.
Tho' I doubt whether he is aligned politically...
He (@archer_rs) said it was true, why would it not be true?
Why would he make up something for comic effect? That might make people believe something that wasn't actually true which would be a very nasty and mean trick to play.
There are a lot of very gullible Brexiteers out there and this slow, protracted 'dropping of the penny' is something many will experience.
I hate to break it to you Des, but for 90% of the population, they voted in 2016 and haven't given it a seconds thought since. Stop thinking twitter is real life.
The trouble is that just like you claimed remainers didn't understand why people in Boston etc voted brexit (I was strangely told that I didn't get it but when I finally got this hallowed explanation of what it was I was missing it was pretty much what I had originally offered up as an explanation) there are many who don't seem to get why people with influence and power wanted brexit. I think that is the penny-drop moments, Des refers to. He also used the word 'will'. For many the penny-drop has still to arrive. It maybe never will because they will be convinced that something else has caused their latest downfall.
ooohhhh, CC is Descarting Descartes!!111111111!11111!1!!!
What do you think of this report that seems to suggest no evidence that lockdown or testing is effective?
Testing and tracing in early March would have been very helpful
Well, I think so. But that research paper suggest otherwise
The government says the system has contacted 114,000 people who may have been exposed to the virus.
But the vast majority of these were found by existing public health teams.
An investigation by BBC Panorama has discovered that 98,000 of the contacts were traced by only 870 public health officials.
The local officials work for Public Health England and are experts in contact tracing. They are responsible for managing more complex cases, like outbreaks in schools and care homes, which often reveal larger numbers of contacts.
So, what we already had was pretty shit hot, and this is an extra that mops up the stuff that the experts don't/can't do.
Seems pretty decent to me.
How is it inadequate? The article is very vague - you could draw the conclusion that capacity is above that needed, which would be a success.
It's certainly what I've got from it.
117000 contacts traced, regardless how we did it
In the first 3 weeks we've had roughly 40,000 positive cases
So we've contacted 3 contacts per positive case. Seems about right to me Des. Happy for you to bark at the moon a bit more though if you like.
So the people of Leicester go further afield to get a drink and spread it outside of their little area, clever.
From my spies in the area, the area for which the spike is prevalent - well how do I put this.
You won't be finding them in any pubs, but I wouldn't be opening places of worship anytime soon.
My first thought was it' has a high percentage of Asian/Muslim people. Non drinkers, but also in the high risk BME grouping.
Edited by Money Shot at 10:51:16 on 29th June 2020
Also the least likely to have been following social distancing between households. From the old "mates mate is a A&E specialist yadda yadda yadda" its hit a couple of large Pakistani populations over there hard hence the spike. Numerous generations in one house, people treating families as households and hence 700 cases or so out of the national 10ish over the last two weeks.
Aye, I was wondering how it was going to be enforced. Simpsons-style dome perhaps?
Can that be permanently installed over the entire midlands?
We should start a crowd funding campaign.
Sir Peter said he had received an email from the government overnight and "it seems they're suggesting we continue the present level of restriction for a further two weeks beyond 4 July".
"That's very different from the dramatic 'lockdown in Leicester' that was being briefed over the weekend."