US Election

[Mr Nice 2.0]

So, this is nearly upon us. What does the hive mind that is Conference Forum predict on the result the?

I was convinced that its gonna be a Trump victory until Rory Stewart all week has been saying the polls are wrong (over compensating Trump support on their models due to past mistakes + not adequately replacing polls by phone reducing poll effectiveness) and US women will deliver a Harris win. This last night was backed up by an Ann Sezler poll in Iowa (apparently regarded as the best in Iowa) that had Harris ahead amongst likely voters. Additionally, he's quoted tweets which show Trumps lead in the betting markets on platforms like Polymarket are due to a few large whales putting big bets on Trump to move the market.

This may be me reading what I want to hear but i'm now backing the astute mind of Rory Stewart to be correct and am going for a Harris victory.

[Shanghai]

Comfortable Trump win. 4 years of great headlines ahead.

[Mr Nice 2.0]

For anyone who fancies a long read on a Sunday morning, this article provides an excellent insight into how the Republican campaign managers have constantly had to fight against Trump's base instincts, not just in what he says, but in who he lets interfere, throughout the campaign to keep him on track.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...ay/680456/

This bit (on him embarresingly dancing/swaying from side to side on stage in Philadelphia for 40 mins) may be my favourite line of the whole campaign:

"Ultimately, they decided, letting him dance was less dangerous than letting him rant"

That's just pure poetry.

[Lenny Baryea]

i'm now backing the astute mind of Rory Stewart

LOL

Cheers, FC83, I needed a pick-me-up after yesterday's goings on at York Road!

(Isn't Trump in jail? I could've sworn we've had multiple posts on here from Descartes to that effect.)

[Mr Nice 2.0]

Comfortable Trump win. 4 years of great headlines ahead.

I have a good friend who post Brexit decided to just not care any more. And so, he now in all situations favours the most funny/choatic outcome of any major political event.

This time round he's actually favouring a narrow Harris win as he's calculated it'll send the US into meltdown. And, I think he may be right because look at how Trump and his people reacted to Biden defeating him easily in 2020? Just imagine how nuts they're gonna go in a narrow loss, especially as polling suggests he's ahead in the Electoral college vote and betting odds are predicting he wins.

I'm betting on the night he claims victory very prematurely and then will refuses to concede if the votes show a Harris victory. And then he'll go to court everywhere to contest results as well as inciting insurrection again as January 2025 approaches. Only, this time it'll be nationwide.

[Mr Nice 2.0]

LOL

Cheers, FC83, I needed a pick-me-up after yesterday's goings on at York Road!

(Isn't Trump in jail? I could've sworn we've had multiple posts on here from Descartes to that effect.)

Sometimes we only see what we want to see...I'm more hopeful than confident that Rory is right. Classic straw clutching from me.

I take it you're not a fan of Mr Stewart?

[Lenny Baryea]

I take it you're not a fan of Mr Stewart?

You Lib Dems might like him.

As for the US, they're f**ked either way. (And, by association, so are we.) Trump is Trump. However, Harris is utterly abysmal in her own way.

[Greek Card]

I have a good friend who post Brexit decided to just not care any more. And so, he now in all situations favours the most funny/choatic outcome of any major political event.

This time round he's actually favouring a narrow Harris win as he's calculated it'll send the US into meltdown. And, I think he may be right because look at how Trump and his people reacted to Biden defeating him easily in 2020? Just imagine how nuts they're gonna go in a narrow loss, especially as polling suggests he's ahead in the Electoral college vote and betting odds are predicting he wins.

I'm betting on the night he claims victory very prematurely and then will refuses to concede if the votes show a Harris victory. And then he'll go to court everywhere to contest results as well as inciting insurrection again as January 2025 approaches. Only, this time it'll be nationwide.

It'll never happen but the funniest result by far would be Trump winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College.

[Baldman]

So, this is nearly upon us. What does the hive mind that is Conference Forum predict on the result the?

I was convinced that its gonna be a Trump victory until Rory Stewart all week has been saying the polls are wrong (over compensating Trump support on their models due to past mistakes + not adequately replacing polls by phone reducing poll effectiveness) and US women will deliver a Harris win. This last night was backed up by an Ann Sezler poll in Iowa (apparently regarded as the best in Iowa) that had Harris ahead amongst likely voters. Additionally, he's quoted tweets which show Trumps lead in the betting markets on platforms like Polymarket are due to a few large whales putting big bets on Trump to move the market.

This may be me reading what I want to hear but i'm now backing the astute mind of Rory Stewart to be correct and am going for a Harris victory.

That Selzer poll is quite something. I never believed the Trump surge but I was convinced he would edge it in the end. Now I’m leaning to Kamala. But still feels like a toss up. And turnout will be crucial.

[Mr Nice 2.0]

You Lib Dems might like him.

As for the US, they're f**ked either way. (And, by association, so are we.) Trump is Trump. However, Harris is utterly abysmal in her own way.

I'm not really a Lib Dem, I just lent them my vote. I'm somewhere between Starmer and Corybn on the spectrum...Brown/Milliband is probably about where I land. Or Charles Kennedy in fact.

As for Rory, I guess the reason I like him is the reason many Conservatives don't. I disagree with his general conservative politics but I find him very reasonable and good at putting across opposing arguments to my views which sometimes make me stop and think a bit (and sometimes I agree with him, usually on European relations and International issues). Ken Clarke was another who did. I find it useful to have a few reasonable people on the other side to help frame my views. There aren't many left on either side of politics who are able to articulate their views without descending into the invective. Which is quite sad really.