US Election

[Mr Nice 2.0]

That Selzer poll is quite something. I never believed the Trump surge but I was convinced he would edge it in the end. Now I’m leaning to Kamala. But still feels like a toss up. And turnout will be crucial.

Yes, exactly the same here. Rory for 3 or 4 weeks has been saying the polls were wrong and I just thought it was wishful thinking until that poll came out. But may be on to something.

Its gonna be tight anyway, as you say. I suspect i'm gonna end up staying up all night on Tuesday. I'm working from home on Wednesday at least.

[Lenny Baryea]

I suspect i'm gonna end up staying up all night on Tuesday.

US Presidential polling day always reminds me of Bush vs Gore in 2000. A fellow first-year student at University (she was from Sunderland, if memory serves) invited herself back to my room. It only dawned on me afterwards (literally) that she hadn't been intending to stay up and watch the election results! I blame Florida.

[Greenwich Shot]

On the other hand, I see from 538 that there’s a new respected AtlasIntel poll that has Trump winning the popular vote. You’d expect him to win the Electoral College comfortably in that case (as funny as it would be if he didn’t).

As Baldman says, turnout on the day will be crucial.

[Mr Nice 2.0]

On the other hand, I see from 538 that there’s a new respected AtlasIntel poll that has Trump winning the popular vote. You’d expect him to win the Electoral College comfortably in that case (as funny as it would be if he didn’t).

As Baldman says, turnout on the day will be crucial.

Interesting, i'll take a look. Wasn't Atlas polling the closest to the 2020 results? They are a conservative and libetarian funded group but getting 2020 correct makes us have to take notice despite potential bias.

I seem to recall analyts saying to win the Electoral college Harris needs to be about 2.5% (or similar) ahead in the popular vote. If she is behind then its a slam dunk for Trump.

[Greenwich Shot]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol...sIntel.pdf

The cross-tab results seem pretty believable.

[Kev-YCFC]

All polls can present as believable, but it’s going to be a close run thing (to borrow Lord Wellington), if I was a yank I’d have zero faith in either of them but if I was to bet, it’d be on Trumpington edging it by a fine margin.

[Greek Card]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pol...sIntel.pdf

The cross-tab results seem pretty believable.

Looking at the data, it seems they have Harris with only 63% of the black vote.

Biden won 87% in 2020.

They also have her doing significantly worse among Hispanic and Asian voters than Biden did.

Hmmmmmmm....

[Dave (Barra)]

No predictions but I love the final days before an election. Polls and bold predictions which are then hastily revisited once the actual result comes in.

[Greenwich Shot]

Isn’t that partly that the Trump campaign is saying ‘Did you feel better off in 2017-20 or 2021-24?’ And the answer is the former (because of global market conditions rather than policies of either Trump or Biden/Harris).

[Greek Card]

No predictions but I love the final days before an election. Polls and bold predictions which are then hastily revisited once the actual result comes in.

Interestingly, there's been very little chat about how the pollsters massively overstated the Labour vote share in this year's election.